Equilibrium Indeterminacy in an Endogenous Growth Model: Debt as a Coordination Device

This paper presents a two-sector endogenous growth model where public spending -which is endogenous and productive- may generate equilibrium indeterminacy. Under certain mild conditions, there exists a continuum of expectations-driven equilibrium paths approaching a common balanced growth path. We show that the welfare-maximizing equilibrium path is associated with a labor supply as large as possible at time zero. Furthermore, the welfare cost of indeterminacy can represent more than a 2.1% of total consumption. It is also shown that public debt may be used to coordinate private expectations on current and future prices, and therefore, may break down the indeterminacy result. The equilibrium selection mechanism works through the amount of debt issued at time zero.

Labor-Market Volatility in the Search-and-Matching Model: The Role of Investment-Specific Technology Shocks

Shocks to investment-specific technology have been identified as a main source of U.S. aggregate output volatility. In this paper we assess the contribution of these shocks to the volatility of labor market variables, namely, unemployment, vacancies, tightness and the job-finding rate. Thus, our paper contributes to a recent body of literature assessing the ability of the search-and-matching model to account for the large volatility observed in labor market variables. To this aim, we solve a neoclassical economy with search and matching in the labor market, where neutral and investment-specific technologies are subject to shocks. The three key features of our model economy are: i) Firms are large, in the sense that they employ many workers. ii) Adjusting capital and labor is costly. iii) Wages are the outcome of an intra-firm Nash-bargaining problem between the firm and its workers. In our calibrated economy, we find that shocks to investment-specific technology explain 40 percent of the observed volatility in U.S. labor productivity. Moreover, these shocks generate relative volatilities in vacancies and the workers' job finding rate which match those observed in U.S. data. Relative volatilities in unemployment and labor market tightness are 55 and 75 percent of their empirical values, respectively.Business Cycles; Labor Market Fluctuations; Investment-Specific Technical Change; Search and Matching; Adjustment Costs; Wage Bargaining.

Markov-Perfect Optimal Fiscal Policy: The Case of Unbalanced Budgets

We study optimal income taxation and public debt policy in a neoclassical economy populated by infinitely-lived households and a benevolent government. The government makes sequential decisions on the provision of a valued public good, on income taxation and the issue of public debt. We characterize and compute Markov-perfect optimal fiscal policy in this economy with two payoff-relevant state variables: physical capital and public debt. We find two stable, steady-state equilibria: one with no income taxation and positive government asset holdings, and another with positive taxation and public debt issuances. We prove that the two steady states are associated with different policy rules, which implies a multiplicity of (expectation-driven) Markov-perfect equilibria.Optimal taxation; optimal public debt; Markov-perfect equilibrium; Time-consistent policy

How important is Intra-household Risk Sharing for Savings and Labor Supply?

While it is recognized that the family is primarily an institution for risk sharing, little is known about the quantitative effects of this informal source of insurance on savings and labor supply. In this paper, we present a model where workers (females and males) are subject to idiosyncratic employment risk and where capital markets are incomplete. A household is formed by a female and a male, who make collective decisions on consumption, savings and labor supplies. In a calibrated version of our model, we find that precautionary savings are only 55% of those generated by a similar economy that lacks access to insurance from the family. We also find that intra-household risk sharing has its largest impact among wealthpoor households. While the wealth-rich use mainly savings to smooth consumption across unemployment spells, wealth-poor households rely on spousal labor supply. For instance, in the group of households with wealth less than two months worth of income, average hours worked by wives of unemployed husbands are 8% higher than those worked by wives of employed husbands. This response in wives’ hours makes up 9% of lost family income. We also find crowding out effects of public unemployment insurance that are comparable to those estimated from the data.Intra-household risk sharing; Collective household model; Idiosyncratic unemployment risk; Incomplete markets; Precautionary motive.

On convergence in endogenous growth models

In this paper we analyze the rate of convergence to a balanced path in a class of endogenous growth models with physical and human capital. We show that such rate depends locally on the technological parameters of the model. but does not depend on those parameters related to preferences. These results stand in sharp contrast with those of the one-sector neoclassical growth model where both preferences and technologies determine the speed of convergence toward a steady state

How important is intra-household risk sharing for savings and labor supply?

While it is recognized that the family is primarily an institution for risk sharing, little is known about the quantitative effects of this informal source of insurance on savings and labor supply. In this paper, we present a model where workers (females and males) are subject to idiosyncratic employment risk and where capital markets are incomplete. A household is formed by a female and a male, who make collective decisions on consumption, savings and labor supplies. We find that intra-household risk sharing has its largest impact among wealthpoor households. While the wealth-rich use mainly savings to smooth consumption across unemployment spells, wealth-poor households rely on spousal labor supply. For instance, for low-wealth households, average hours worked by wives of unemployed husbands are 8% higher than those worked by wives of employed husbands. This response in wives’ hours makes up 9% of lost family income. We also study the crowding out effects of public unemployment insurance on other sources of private insurance, and consumption losses upon an unemployment spellIntra-household risk sharing, Collective household model, Idiosyncratic unemployment risk, Incomplete markets, Precautionary motive

The rise and fall of centralized wage bargaining

During the three decades spanning the early 50’s to the early 80’s, the wagesetting process in most Northern European countries was dominated by centralized bargaining, where peak level labor and employer associations set wages nationwide. In the early 80’s centralized wage bargaining began to collapse. In this paper we assess a novel explanation both for the initial establishment of a centralized wagesetting process, and for its subsequent collapse. According to our theory, centralized wage bargaining was set up as a response to the spillovers created by the unemployment benefit program. Its collapse was the result of the increase in the productivity gap across workers, brought about by equipment-specific technological progress and equipment-skill complementarit

How important is intra-household risk sharing for savings and labor supply?

While it is recognized that the family is primarily an institution for risk sharing, little is known about the quantitative effects of this informal source of insurance on savings and labor supply. In this paper, we present a model where workers (females and males) are subject to idiosyncratic employment risk and where capital markets are incomplete. A household is formed by a female and a male, who make collective decisions on consumption, savings and labor supplies. We find that intra-household risk sharing has its largest impact among wealthpoor households. While the wealth-rich use mainly savings to smooth consumption across unemployment spells, wealth-poor households rely on spousal labor supply. For instance, for low-wealth households, average hours worked by wives of unemployed husbands are 8% higher than those worked by wives of employed husbands. This response in wives’ hours makes up 9% of lost family income. We also study the crowding out effects of public unemployment insurance on other sources of private insurance, and consumption losses upon an unemployment spel